The Knightsman Letter · Archive
Every letter, in one place.
10 monthly macro briefings on interest rates, inflation, jobs, geopolitics and how they ripple through markets. Newest first.
October — A world economy caught between AI and oilThrough 13 October, the IMF described AI investment as a support for global growth while warning that the prolonged Middle East conflict, high oil prices and public debt created downside risks.September — Inflation persistence meets the jobs mandateThe Federal Reserve raised rates in September, highlighting renewed inflation concerns despite signs of softer hiring. Markets were weighing the risk of further tightening against a possible deterioration in employment.August — The cost of higher energyThe late-summer macro picture was shaped by the lagged effect of elevated fuel prices, higher borrowing costs and uncertainty over the duration of conflict. The central question was how much pressure consumers and employers could absorb.July — Markets price the durability of the shockA July ceasefire in the Iran conflict later collapsed, underscoring the danger of assuming geopolitical risks had permanently faded. The Federal Reserve also met in late July as investors assessed inflation persistence and the labour market.June — Oil, inflation and the policy responseThe June Federal Reserve meeting and economic projections offered another checkpoint for inflation, employment and the expected path of rates against the backdrop of conflict-driven energy volatility.May — The consumer under pressureThe key macro issue was whether households could absorb higher energy and financing costs. Headline inflation alone cannot answer that: real wage growth, hiring and consumer confidence all matter.April — Can central banks look through oil?As policymakers approached the April Federal Reserve meeting, investors had to separate changes in headline inflation driven by fuel from persistent pressures in wages and services.March — The inflation–growth dilemmaThe March Federal Reserve meeting and updated projections provided a framework for assessing how policymakers were balancing inflation risks against employment and growth. The central question was whether an energy shock would prove temporary or become embedded in prices.February — Energy risk returns to the foregroundThe escalation of conflict involving Iran and the United States and Israel brought energy-supply risk to the centre of the macro discussion. Investors faced the possibility that a supply shock could lift inflation even if underlying demand slowed.January — The rate-cut questionThe Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50–3.75% at its 27–28 January meeting. Investors were weighing whether inflation would cool fast enough to allow further easing without a deterioration in employment.
Letters are retrospective commentary prepared in October 2026. They explain market mechanisms and are not predictions, a trading record or advice.