July — Markets price the durability of the shock

A July ceasefire in the Iran conflict later collapsed, underscoring the danger of assuming geopolitical risks had permanently faded. The Federal Reserve also met in late July as investors assessed inflation persistence and the labour market.

Relief rallies can reverse when a ceasefire fails. Oil, inflation expectations and bond yields can respond before the impact reaches company earnings or official inflation releases.

The market lesson was that political announcements and sustained physical restoration of energy supply are not the same thing.

Retrospective commentary prepared October 2026. Market mechanisms are analysis, not predictions or a contemporaneous trading record.