March — The inflation–growth dilemma

The March Federal Reserve meeting and updated projections provided a framework for assessing how policymakers were balancing inflation risks against employment and growth. The central question was whether an energy shock would prove temporary or become embedded in prices.

Higher energy prices can produce an uncomfortable combination of weaker real spending and higher headline inflation. That can create volatility in government bonds, the dollar and equity valuations.

The Middle East conflict and the continuing Russia–Ukraine war kept energy infrastructure, sanctions and trade routes in focus.

Retrospective commentary prepared October 2026. Market mechanisms are analysis, not predictions or a contemporaneous trading record.